category: ECB

This Week’s News

 

What Happened This Week?

Global markets have started strong– trying to make up for a somber 2011.

U.S.: The S&P 500 was up 3% on the week. Year to date it is up 4.6%.

China: The Chinese market (Shanghai Index) was up 3.3% on the week. Year to date it is up 5.4%

Europe: Europe was up about 3.4% on the week. They are up 4.7% on the year.

 

All is Quiet on the Western Front (Europe)

We still have not heard much out of Europe. The LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operations) has taken some pressure off of the European Banking system—which was a huge risk to markets as Greece and Italy floundered. With some of this bank concern alleviated, European bank stocks rallied 8% on the week.

So is it all good? While this LTRO facility has good implications for the banks– the European Central Bank (ECB) now has the largest balance sheet in the G4 (US, Europe, The UK, Japan). And it’s still growing. The ECB is conducting a stealthier, but very potent, version of Quantitative Easing. This is not good for the Euro long term.

 

All is Good on the Eastern Front (China)

China’s GDP rose 8.9%. While this is the weakest reading since 2009, it does illustrate how fast the Emerging Markets are growing relative to the developed markets—which are growing closer to 0%-2%.

 

What Exactly is the Chinese New Year?

Happy Chinese New Year! This holiday is the longest and most important in the Chinese calendar.

According to Chinese legend, a long time ago, God called a race for all animals. The first 12 finishers would be included in a very special list. The rabbit, the tiger, the dragon, the rat were all included among finishers. All of these 12 finishers made up the signs of the Zodiac.

We are, as of today, in the year of the Dragon. This is considered to be the luckiest of all signs. In fact, there is expected to be an uptick in the Chinese birthrate this year as couples are expected to rush to make ‘dragon babies’.

Here Chinese Feng Shui Masters make their predictions for the year: Yahoo: 2012 Predictions from Chinese Masters.

 

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This Week’s News

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Quick Market Stats

 

S&P 500 was up 1% on the week. Year to date we are up 1.6%.

 

Around the world since January 1st: China is down 1.6%, Europe and Japan are down just about 1%, Gold is up 3.4%.

 

What Drove Markets this Week?

 

There was better economic news in the U.S. and European Central Bank (ECB) activity has been viewed as positive.

 

In the U.S., the Jobs Report (read: Jobs Report: 101) was good. Unemployment fell to 8.5%. German unemployment also fell to the lowest level since 1991 at 6.8%.

 

In Europe, news has been light. Which is generally hard for Europe since there are so many leaders who all love to talk. That has been positive.

 

Also, the ECB has been, effectively, lending banks money. They are doing this though a facility call the LTRO. Shocker, we have another acronym. It stands for Long Term Refinancing Operation.

 

How do they do this? Well they create money first. This is akin to the U.S. printing money during quantitative easing (read: Quantitative Easing- Explained in Talking Cartoons).

 

While this is good for banks, this is not good for their home currency, the Euro. As such, we have seen the Euro falling in value versus the dollar (1.27 dollars to every Euro). This level is a 16-month low. See chart here. Maybe start planning that European summer holiday as many analysts suggest this trend is going to continue. We recommend Nammos Beach in Mykonos, Greece. And you do need the Euro to fall as we paid about $13 for a thimble sized coffee.

 

Housing: A Bright Spot?

 

Housing stocks (measured by the Homebuilders ETF: XHB) were up about 5% this week—and they are up about 50% from their October lows. Why?

 

Housing data has been showing some positive signs. And there is speculation there will be a government home refinance plan—this would hurt mortgage bondholders but help housing prices and, by corollary, the economy.

 

Another Bright Spot: Truffle Honey

 

We were gifted some of this truffle honey. This will now be essential for any cheese plate we make.

 

The perfect hostess gift: truffle honey and Bull & Bear Flash Cards.

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